My 2024 Election Prediction

Reading the tea leaves two days ahead.

First, a caveat.

It’s impossible to include all variables. Polling relies on honesty (which can be scant) and early voting data is incomplete.

But we love predictions. Guess right, and you’re an expert! Because when every swing state poll is within the margin of error, it’s a guess.

So without further ado, here’s my guess prediction.

ARIZONA

Republicans are beating Democrats by 8% in early voting, which has now passed 2/3 of the state’s 2020 turnout. Polls consistently show Trump winning. Biden won by just 0.3%, Katie Hobbs (D) won the governor’s race by 0.7% (in 2022), and Sen. Mark Kelly (D) was reelected by 5% (also in 2022). But the Trump-leaning polls, border fear-mongering, and Republican early vote make me think TRUMP WINS ARIZONA (despite an abortion ballot measure that could help with turnout).

GEORGIA

In 2020, Georgia went blue for the second time in 36 years (by 0.2%). In 2022, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) won his runoff by 3% (against a flawed candidate) while Gov. Brian Kemp (R) was reelected by a healthy 7.5%. Women are outvoting men by 12% and early voting has topped 80% of the state’s 2020 turnout (#1 among swing states). But Georgia has voter suppression, election worker intimidation, and a pro-Trump elections board. Based on high rural turnout and consistent polling for Trump, I think TRUMP WINS GEORGIA.

I took this photo at a polling place in Gwinnett County, GA on Election Day 2018. There were plenty of voting machines (~14), but only three being used. There were plenty of election workers, but only two checking in voters. Officials said it was ‘orders from the Gwinnett County Board of Elections’. And the water/pizza we brought to voters — who were waiting in line for hours with their kids — is now illegal. They also turned off the AC to ‘save money’ (hence the fans).

MICHIGAN

Biden won by 3%, Democrats crushed statewide in 2022, and women are currently outvoting men by 11%. But also, 10/7 happened. Michigan has 200,000+ Arab Americans (the highest share of any state at 2.1%). A recent Washington Post poll (below) has Trump tied with Harris among young voters (and voters under 65 say they trust Trump more on Gaza). Recent polls also favor Trump. Throw in Trump’s efforts to swing Arab Americans, no Harris endorsement from Rashida Tlaib, and disaffected Jewish voters potentially voting Trump, and I think TRUMP WINS MICHIGAN.

Tied among under-40 AND +15 with seniors is mind-blowing.

+14-20 for Trump on Gaza must be a protest.

NEVADA

Early voting is over: Republicans beat Democrats by 4%. But polling is all over the place. According to Nevada expert Jon Ralston, Elon Musk’s PAC hired Chris Carr — who flipped the governorship for Republicans in 2022 — to help turn out voters. Like Georgia, Nevada is past 70% of 2020 turnout (with rural counties way up). Throw in Trump’s ‘no taxes on tips’ for culinary workers, and I think TRUMP WINS NEVADA.

NORTH CAROLINA

Biden lost by 1.3%. The 2022 Senate Democratic candidate lost by 3%. North Carolina is above 75% of 2020 turnout, evenly split between Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated/third party voters. Women are outvoting men by 10.5%. Recent polls favor Trump, but they’re weighted with conservative pollsters. Since the pandemic, 400,000+ people have moved here. One wildcard is the hurricane (largely affecting western rural areas); another is the Republican nominee for governor visiting porn shops five days a week and saying that ‘some people need killing’. Democrats have descended on this state; I’ve heard more about Mecklenberg County in the past month than in my entire life. There’s also a savvy new operative (Anderson Clayton) running the state Democratic party. This leads me to believe HARRIS WINS NORTH CAROLINA.

PENNSYLVANIA

The past fifteen polls have margins of 2% or less (mostly for Trump). But Biden won by 1.2%; and in 2022, John Fetterman (D) won his Senate race by 5% and Josh Shapiro (D) won his governor’s race by 15%. Much has been made of Harris not picking Shapiro, but he’s strongly making a case for her in new ads. Democrats have a 23% mail ballot advantage over Republicans (with few unaffiliated/third party voters). Harris’s campaign is heavily invested in the ground game (has the cast of Nobody Wants This knocked on your door yet?). Add in Trump’s Puerto Rico debacle (there are half a million Puerto Ricans here) and I think Trump fumbles on the goal line. Thanks to women, Puerto Ricans, and enough Jews not voting for Trump (with Shapiro’s help), and I believe HARRIS WINS PENNSYLVANIA.

WISCONSIN

There’s minimal early vote data, but polls consistently show Harris ahead. Biden won by 0.6%, Gov. Tony Evers (D) won by 3.5% in 2022, and the liberal state supreme court nominee won by 11% in 2023. Trump is fumbling here too, like calling Milwaukee a ‘horrible city’. The state Democratic party has an experienced operative (Ben Wikler). This is kind of a ‘vibes’ pick, but my gut says HARRIS WINS WISCONSIN.

So there you have it — Harris will count a 271-267 electoral victory for herself on January 6^th.

Of course, Trump might win barely — or Harris might crush (thanks to women Harris voters powering this shocking poll). But I don’t see Trump winning in a landslide. I think his MSG rally – the Puerto Rico comment, the ‘America is for Americans’ comment – did nothing to secure independents, women, and POC (and pissed them off).

That’s my 2024 prediction (of course, it doesn’t include my Electoral College concerns).

What’s yours?