The Path Forward

It's going to be okay.

If you’re a Trump supporter, congrats! You’re stoked. But if you’re a Harris supporter, you’re probably despondent.

Many despondent people (and some stoked ones) have DMed me since Election Day. Some are terrified.

Given their fears, I thought I’d note the guardrails for a Trump presidency.

Here are five things to remember…

1. Trump can’t be president a third time.

The 22nd Amendment is clear:

“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”

If Trump were to serve more than two years (but less than four), Vance would take over (and could serve two additional terms). But Trump can’t be president a third time and can’t do anything about it. Even a conservative SCOTUS (Supreme Court) can’t reverse something so clear in the Constitution.

Which reminds me…

2. Trump can’t change the Constitution.

Presidents have no role in the amendment process (they don’t sign or veto amendments). If Trump wants to ask Congress to propose an amendment — or the states to call a constitutional convention (which is a real thing) — he’s welcome to. But you need 2/3 of the House and Senate to propose an amendment to the states (for ratification) and Republicans are short in both. As for a convention, that requires 34 state legislatures. Republicans will soon control 28, Democrats will control 18, and three or four will be split (depending on Minnesota’s results). Republicans would need six additional legislatures to call a convention and 10 to ratify any proposed amendments.

That means an amendment, or a convention, isn’t happening anytime soon.

3. Republicans don’t have a filibuster-proof Senate majority.

You need 60 votes to pass almost any bill (thanks to the filibuster). But judicial confirmations, Cabinet appointees, and ‘budget reconciliation’ bills (on budgets, spending, revenue, and taxes) can be passed with a majority.

Republicans won a 53-47 Senate majority — seven votes short for most things (like an abortion ban).

As for circumventing the filibuster, you need 2/3 of the Senate to end it fully or a majority to ditch it per-issue (like Republicans did with SCOTUS nominees and Democrats did with lower-court and Cabinet nominees). But there aren’t enough Republicans supporting that. Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Bill Cassidy, Thom Tillis, John Thune, John Cornyn, John Curtis, and even Mitch McConnell (and others) are filibuster stans (four of them could block a ‘carve out’). It’s like how Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema, two former Democratic senators, refused to carve out the filibuster for Democratic priorities like voting rights (during Biden’s term).

Could I be wrong? Sure. But I haven’t seen any evidence these senators want to ditch the filibuster for an abortion ban or other rights-restricting law.

4. There are (still) hundreds of federal judges who follow the Constitution.

Republicans have the House, the Senate, the White House (a ‘trifecta’), and a conservative SCOTUS majority (6-3). Game over? Not quite.

People don’t realize that (besides the 9 Supreme Court justices) we have 179 circuit (appellate) court judges and 677 district court judges. Of those, Trump appointed 3 Supreme Court justices, 54 appellate judges, and roughly 166 district judges (a fair amount). But that means 642 of those 865 federal judges (74%) are not Trump appointees. The Supreme Court also decides very few cases: In 2022-2023 there were 4,159 cases filed in SCOTUS (it decided 66), 39,987 filed in Circuit Courts, and 292,376 filed in District Courts (plus another 47,355 involving earplugs). Your federal case has a 99.98% chance of being decided by a lower court and a 74% chance of being decided by a non-Trump judge. (And since Biden has two months left to appoint judges with a Democratic Senate majority, that 74% could rise.)

5. There are checks and balances among the states.

For some reason Democrats focus more on federal elections than on state ones (to their detriment). But Democrats should know the Constitution limits federal power. ‘Father of the Constitution’ James Madison wrote in Federalist 45 that “the powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the Federal Government are few and defined. Those which are to remain in the State Governments are numerous and indefinite.” And per the 10th Amendment, if something isn’t in the Constitution as a federal power — and isn’t prohibited to the states — then it’s a state issue.

That includes reproductive rights, LGBTQ protections, gun regulations, education, marijuana laws, criminal justice reform, voting laws, and more. And Democratic governors and attorneys general (plus state legislatures) are about to become the front line of defense when the Trump administration tries to overstep.

I get that you’re terrified (if you didn’t support Trump). And the Trump administration can single-handedly affect the environment, immigration, healthcare, and civil servants (firing thousands of them per Project 2025). But there are things it can’t do, and you can thank the Constitution for that.

Lastly, our lack of knowing these checks and balances isn’t our fault because civics and the Constitution are taught less. If you want to fix that, might I recommend a book that explains our Constitution in easy-to-understand terms: A version for kids (8-12), teenagers (13-17), and adults (18+).

If more people get educated and involved, it’s going to be okay.

So get to work.